Giải thích thuật ngữ kinh tế

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July 28, 2006

U.S. Economic Growth Slows Significantly
By JEREMY W. PETERS
Economic growth slowed significantly in the second quarter, settling down to a rate that economists regard as more sustainable and orderly than the torrid pace of the first quarter.
But inflation continued to climb, raising questions about whether the economy was cooling enough to hold price increases down.
Gross domestic product, the sum of the nation’s output of goods and services, grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the three months ended June 30, the Commerce Department reported today. While that is considered a healthy growth rate, it is well below the figure of 3 percent that many economists forecast.
Just how rapidly the economy is growing is closely watched by the Federal Reserve and, in turn, by investors, who will price the stock market accordingly. Slowing growth would seem to give the Fed a reason to stop raising interest rates — something many investors would like to see.
Stocks rose in early afternoon trading today after the figures were released. The Dow Jones industrial average gained more than 100 points while the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index and the Nasdaq composite both rose more than 1 percent. Treasury bond prices also rose, and the dollar lost value against the euro, the Japanese yen and other currencies — all signs that investors think American interest rates may stop rising.
But the report also contained signs of relatively high inflation, which could point instead to further interest-rate increases. One closely watched broad measure of inflation, known as the core index of personal consumption, rose at a 2.9 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the fastest pace reported since 1994. The index rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter.
Consumers did not keep pace with the economy, increasing their spending by only a 2 percent annual rate in the second quarter; the figure grew at a 5.3 percent annual rate the quarter before.
The question facing the Federal Reserve now is whether the economy will slow down enough to keep inflation in check without further tightening of monetary policy. If not, another rate increase would seem likely. But the 2.5 percent growth rate reported today is not a clear signal one way or the other, leaving economists to wonder what the Fed’s next move will be.
“Inflation is still running above levels the Fed will be comfortable with,” said Rob Carnell of ING. The new growth figures could support a pause in the Fed’s program of interest-rate increases, he said, but “there is still a risk-management argument for one final rate hike, though this is looking harder to justify.”
The numbers also showed that while economic growth is cooling, it has not been falling at an alarming rate.
“If you just looked at the deceleration from the first quarter, you would think the economy tanked,” Joel L. Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, said. “It did not. Given the excessively strong early-year rise, some slowdown had to occur, and it did.”
He added: “The Fed is still faced with the dilemma of a moderating economy and rising inflation.”
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http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/28/business/28cnd-econ.html?ex=1169697600&en=24bcb31f6a22a988&ei=5087